Singapore's two housing markets moved in opposite directions in the third quarter of 2026. URA's flash estimate shows private home prices up 1.4%, the strongest quarterly gain this year and an acceleration from 0.5% in Q2. HDB's flash estimate shows resale prices down 0.2%, following falls of 0.1% in Q1 and 0.3% in Q2, the third straight quarterly decline.
At the top of the HDB market, prices are still climbing. A record 209 resale flats sold for at least S$1m in September, according to SRX data, surpassing August's previous high of 201. Across the whole quarter, 597 flats crossed S$1m, 8.5% of all resale transactions. The highest price in September was S$1.72m, for a five-room flat at The Pinnacle@Duxton. Toa Payoh recorded the most million-dollar deals of any estate, with 33.
Transaction volume also picked up. HDB resale volume rose 17.7% quarter on quarter to 7,528 flats. Private new sale volume moved the other way: flash figures point to a fall of about 30%, though that number covers only part of the quarter and may be revised when final data are released.
A policy change ties the two markets together. On 28 July 2026, HDB removed the 15-month wait-out period that had required private property owners to wait before buying a resale flat. Agents have reported a rise in enquiries from condominium owners looking to right-size into HDB flats since the change took effect.
At Cashew, we are seeing a significant number of applicants who have just sold a private property and are now buying an HDB flat. These buyers typically come in with larger budgets than the average resale buyer, often because they sold into a private market that is still rising. That extra budget is going toward the same large flats in mature estates that make up the million-dollar segment, and it is a plausible reason why the top of the HDB market keeps setting records even as the overall index falls.
Both figures discussed here are flash estimates. Final figures for the quarter are due later in October 2026 and may be revised from these numbers.
Sarah Chen
