HDB leasing volume fell 15% in September, according to a Singapore Business Review report published on 21 October 2026. Usually, when you hear that activity in a market fell 15%, you assume prices are next. For most markets, that's a fair instinct.
However, in this case the number is narrower than it looks. Leasing volume is the count of rental applications HDB approved that month: it tells you how many flats were let out, not what they were let out for. So a 15% fall is a transaction-count story, not a rent-level story. Fewer deals closed in September. That does not mean rents came down, and a count on its own cannot tell you why it fell.
What the report actually gives us
The report we have is short. It gives the size of the fall and nothing underneath it: not the number of approvals behind the percentage, and not what the 15% is measured against, the month before or the same month a year earlier.
So the 15% is the one fact to work with here. The rest of this piece is about what a figure like that can and cannot tell you.
The count measures deals, not dollars
An owner who rents out a whole flat or a bedroom has to get HDB's approval first. Each approval HDB grants is one tick in the monthly count. That's the whole series.
So it answers one question: how many lettings were approved. It carries no information about the rent agreed in any of them.
Rents are reported separately, as a price measure on its own schedule. HDB's rental price data comes out quarterly, so the next rent reading arrives with that release rather than next month. And the listings you scroll through online are a third thing again: asking prices, which are what owners hope to get rather than what tenants agreed to pay.
Why volume and rent can move in opposite directions
That raises the obvious question: if fewer flats were let out, why?
A rental deal needs two sides. A flat available to let, and a tenant who wants it.
Take away tenants, and fewer deals close. The rent on the deals that do close tends to drift down, because owners are competing for a smaller group of people.
Take away flats instead, and fewer deals also close. But the tenants still looking are now competing over a smaller pool, so rent holds or rises.
Both of those show up in the data the same way: as a lower count.
That's why a 15% fall, on its own, doesn't tell you which of the two happened. You need the rent figures to separate them.
What this means for you
- If you rent out a flat, don't cut your asking rent because of this number. It says nothing about what flats like yours are being let for. Look at HDB's rental price data and the approved rents on comparable flats in your block or town.
- If you're counting on rental income to help cover your instalment, plan around vacancy rather than rent. Vacancy is the stretch of time a flat sits empty between one tenant moving out and the next moving in. The approval count does not measure it, and we have no vacancy figures to size it. But in a month when fewer leases were signed, the gap between tenants is the thing worth budgeting for, not a lower rent.
- If you're renewing a lease as a tenant, a 15% fall in deals is not a bargaining chip on its own. Bring comparable rents to the conversation instead.
- This is about rental income, not your loan rate. HDB concessionary loans are priced off the CPF rate, the rate your CPF savings earn, not SORA, the Singapore benchmark most bank home loans follow. Nothing in this report moves your instalment.
- What to watch next: the next monthly approval count, and the next quarterly rent reading. We can't yet say whether a 15% move is unusual for this series, so one month on its own isn't a trend.
Sources
Sarah Chen
